A quick look at recent history shows that the two recessions that occurred in the fourth year of a U.S. presidents term resulted in the incumbent party losing the White House. The other 1o or so since the 1930's all occurred in the first year of the presidency, and the recession was over before the next election. In those scenarios the incumbent party won all the elections except for the landslide of 64, which had much more to do with the assassination of JFK and a country looking for political stability than being satisfied with a rebounding economy.
Bearing these facts in mind, it looks like 2008 will not deviate from this path. The Democrats will be inheriting the Oval Office and a big fat greasy recession sandwich. The question now becomes, will the economy rebound in time for 2012? This economic downturn is a bit more ominous than those of recent memory, and even global players are taking a boot to the gut. I have no doubt that the market will correct itself, but it's not going to happen in a fortnight...
And now for the real kicker. The recently approved fiscal bailout policy is by far and away the largest government intervention we have ever seen. Some have said it even borders on something akin to socialism. The GOP lives and breaths a platform of less government, not more, and yet McCain made it a point to stop campaigning to ensure it passed. The media keeps saying he has yet to pull off the gloves during this campaign, but maybe he never planned to? I am not seeing the stage being set for a 4th Quarter Comeback... uh... or am I? Maybe I am looking at the wrong 4th quarter?? Could it be that the GOP is a bit more savvy on their history and economics than they let on? Why not let the Democrats take the fall for what may very well be a lengthy recession so they can pick up the pieces in 2012 and right the ship? It sure isn't going to be a GOP administration scrambling to foot the 700 billion dollar price tag for the bail out now is it...
4 comments:
That's a very interesting strategy, Jesse! I have wondered why the GOP hasn't been a bit more aggressive but your "conspiracy" does make sense. Whoever gets the Oval office, man, oh man, they get a mess! I don't mind Obama as a president except for the fact that he's more liberal than any of his Democratic colleagues. He doesn't explain how he'll pay for universal healthcare while trimming the federal deficit. Hmmm. Guess we'll be footing the bill for that if it ever goes through.
Thanks for your thoughts!
P.S. Flotsam & Jetsam?? What's that?
I first heard of Flotsam and Jetsam as a chapter title to the book Two Towers by Tolkien. I give a decent description on the front page of my blog of to the side under the heading: For the Record:
Very interesting, Jesse. I commend you on your history. I do think that there are some factors that (hopefully) may keep histor from repeating itself. For one, the nation is more sharply divided than in those prior elections, and the challenger is not only more inexperienced that the incumbent party candidate, but is also far more radical, which is something that currently worries the left-leaners. I think things will be determined by how McCain handles exposing Obama to the country and how long it takes to implode. He will have to eat a really rotten economic sandwich for sure, but it absolutely beats having the rest of us eat the crap sandwich of the socialist policies of "change" that are being espoused by the Senator from Illinois.
"Karl Marx posited that socialism would be achieved via class struggle and a proletarian revolution, it being the transitional stage between capitalism and communism."
Now, we may not have gotten to this point by class struggle...but it still may be the precursor to communism??? Now THAT's a conspiracy theory.
On a more serious note, capitalism is still an untested form of government. This is a very interesting time in the history of capitalism.
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